No one should trust Vladimir Putin with so much as a sandwich. But as Trump takes everything so personally, when Putin says "yes" and proceeds to do "no," there is at least even odds that Trump could retaliate against Russia for making him look weak and/or stupid by violating an agreed-to ceasefire. I do think he expects Putin to do what he (Trump) says… but then Putin will set it up to look like "it wasn't me, it was them" when hostilities recommence. Sigh
Smart analysis, Meg. I agree entirely that Putin will find a way to blame Ukraine. Here's what I wonder: Does Trump know Putin won't accept the conditions for a truce -- perhaps Putin has suggested as much privately -- and this is a charade so that both of them can save (dishonest) face and blame Ukraine?
Sadly, I think those two are likely to continue their collusion. But Trump’s ego is still a wild card. Putin does not act based on his emotions and Trump clearly does. Add to that Trump‘s proclivity for taking everything personally, and there’s no telling how he might react to open defiance on Putin‘s part. Trump has a lot invested in making this “deal“ even though the entire world knows his deals mostly ended in bankruptcy and felonies.
Trump's emotions are definitely an X factor. My guess is that Putin, the old KGB hand, has accounted for that and will move carefully, looking to assuage Trump's ego while finding ways to keep blaming Ukraine for the lack of a truce (and continuing to bomb its people without Trump objecting). The other factor I think about is that, Trump's ego aside, the absence of a deal won't hurt him much politically. He'll assign blame for its failure to (most likely) Zelensky and that will be repeated ad nauseam by the right-wing media ecosystem until it hardens into fact for his supporters. And then he'll leave it to Europe to figure everything out.
I so wish your analysis will prove to be sheer pessimism— but I greatly fear you are right. The only hope for Ukraine now will be Europe. We are a world-class disgrace and traitors to our heritage.
No one should trust Vladimir Putin with so much as a sandwich. But as Trump takes everything so personally, when Putin says "yes" and proceeds to do "no," there is at least even odds that Trump could retaliate against Russia for making him look weak and/or stupid by violating an agreed-to ceasefire. I do think he expects Putin to do what he (Trump) says… but then Putin will set it up to look like "it wasn't me, it was them" when hostilities recommence. Sigh
Smart analysis, Meg. I agree entirely that Putin will find a way to blame Ukraine. Here's what I wonder: Does Trump know Putin won't accept the conditions for a truce -- perhaps Putin has suggested as much privately -- and this is a charade so that both of them can save (dishonest) face and blame Ukraine?
Sadly, I think those two are likely to continue their collusion. But Trump’s ego is still a wild card. Putin does not act based on his emotions and Trump clearly does. Add to that Trump‘s proclivity for taking everything personally, and there’s no telling how he might react to open defiance on Putin‘s part. Trump has a lot invested in making this “deal“ even though the entire world knows his deals mostly ended in bankruptcy and felonies.
Trump's emotions are definitely an X factor. My guess is that Putin, the old KGB hand, has accounted for that and will move carefully, looking to assuage Trump's ego while finding ways to keep blaming Ukraine for the lack of a truce (and continuing to bomb its people without Trump objecting). The other factor I think about is that, Trump's ego aside, the absence of a deal won't hurt him much politically. He'll assign blame for its failure to (most likely) Zelensky and that will be repeated ad nauseam by the right-wing media ecosystem until it hardens into fact for his supporters. And then he'll leave it to Europe to figure everything out.
I so wish your analysis will prove to be sheer pessimism— but I greatly fear you are right. The only hope for Ukraine now will be Europe. We are a world-class disgrace and traitors to our heritage.
"We are a world-class disgrace and traitors to our heritage" -- amen.